Sri Lanka’s contemporary heroes clash tomorrow in violence-marred polls that pit the victorious war President against his popular former army commander.
Should the challenger prevail, the island nation could be staring at a period of uncertainty, analysts said.
President Mahinda Rajapakse called the presidential poll two years ahead of schedule, seeking to cash in on an immense popularity surge gained from ending a quarter-century-long civil war. While he fashioned the victory with determined diplomacy and political support, the instrument of victory was General Sarath Fonseka a brilliant and ruthless soldier, who now stands opposed to him.
Rajapakse and Fonseka fell out shortly after the war ended last May with the battlefield deaths of Tamil Tiger supremo Velupillai Prabhakaran and all his top lieutenants.
Weeks after sharing space with the President on victory posters that went up all over the Sinhala-majority southern part of the island, Fonseka found himself stripped of army command, and elevated to the largely toothless post of Chief of Combined Defence Staff.
He made his resentment plain and quit the army in November to mount a presidential challenge backed by the combined opposition, which includes the Marxist-Sinhala JVP, or People’s Liberation Front, as well as the free-market United National Party. In a bizarre turn of events, the Tamil National Alliance, a group that was often seen as pro-Tamil Tigers, has backed the retired general.
Officially, there are 22 candidates in the fray, but most are expected to lose their election deposits.
“Rajapakse has the edge, being in administration,” said Professor S.D. Muni of the Institute of South Asian Studies in Singapore, a leading expert on the subcontinent.
“If he is re-elected, it means consolidation of power. If he loses, the presidential system may have to go since Fonseka is committed to change that.”
Although Fonseka was excoriated by hardline Sinhala elements for alleging that troops were instructed to overlook the Tigers’ white-flag surrender and wipe out the rebel leadership, he has seen an unexpected surge of popularity in recent weeks.
“The people are leery about the prospects of another six to eight years of the Rajapakses,” said a senior Asian diplomat in Colombo.
“The family is everywhere and between them, the Rajapakse siblings control portfolios that account for two-thirds of the economy. There is also the fear that after the President’s second term, his brother Gothabhaya may be poised to continue the regime.”
Rajapakse holds the defence and finance portfolios. His brother Gothabhaya is Defence Minister and another brother, Basil, is Senior Adviser to the President. The President’s older brother, Chamal Rajapakse, is Minister in charge of Ports and Aviation. Several other relatives hold key positions in the government.
All this has fed tales of high-level corruption, which Fonseka has used to advantage in his campaign speeches.
Besides, the Rajapakses are from the far south in a country where most rulers have come from the provinces surrounding Colombo.
Yesterday, former President Chandrika Kumaratunga pledged support for Fonseka.
In the event the Sinhala vote is divided, the Tamils, who form some 14 per cent of the island’s 21 million people, may hold the power balance. Should they give Fonseka their vote, Sri Lanka may see a new president this week.
Tamil groups feel that this strategy could help their cause and increase their say in Colombo, even though Fonseka has spoken of raising the Sri Lankan military’s strength after the war and once reportedly said that the island is a Sinhala nation where Tamils “are also allowed to live”.
Campaigning ended last Saturday night to permit a cooling-off period. At least five people have died in the weeks running up to the poll and dozens more have been injured in poll-related violence. Last week, a key Fonseka supporter had his house fire-bombed.
“The violence will reduce voter attendance, then the rigging will take place,” Fonseka has alleged.
Some 70,000 police are being deployed around voting booths, the government said. — The Straits Times
© The Malaysian Insider
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